Want More Refugees? Keep Blocking Ukraine’s Missile Use
Germany and the US must allow Kyiv to use its most effective weapons against Russian long-range strikes.
People take shelter in a Kyiv metro station during a Russian missile and drone attack on Aug. 26.
Photographer: ROMAN PILIPEY/AFPThe moment it became clear Hezbollah would be starting a large-scale drone and missile attack last week, Israel fired a preemptive strike that targeted dozens of launch sites within Lebanon. This was, to use sophisticated military parlance, a no-brainer, reducing stress on the air-defense systems that the attack was designed to overwhelm.To the best of our knowledge, it also worked.
As controversial as the war in Gaza has become, this clear-cut act of Israeli self-defense against purely military assets in Lebanon was not. Even so, it’s something that Ukraine isn’t being allowed to do against Russia with the most effective weapons in its arsenal.
There are many reasons, from moral to strategic, for lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of allied long-range strike capacity on Russian soil. But the most compelling for Germany and the US — Kyiv’s most important, and cautious, arms suppliers — is that they can’t afford not to.
Between Sunday and Monday, Russia fired about 300 heavy drones and cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles at Ukraine, targeting its energy infrastructure. This, unlike Hezbollah’s effort, was not a one-off retaliation. It was part of a pre-winter strategy, and the rolling blackouts that ensued suggest the tactic is likely to succeed, so long as Ukraine’s forces are hamstrung.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz should be asking himself one hard question, as he prepares for the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party (AfD)’s expected first-ever regional election win this weekend: Where does he think the millions of Ukrainians unable to cook or heat their homes in sub-zero winter temperatures will end up? He should know it’s Germany.
From an embarrassing start, Scholz and his government have come a long way in defending Ukraine. Yet they continue to balk at sending Taurus cruise missiles, for fear of provoking Russia into a nuclear response. This approach needs to change before the damage is done in Ukraine, rather than – as the pattern has been – after it’s too late.
The Swedish-German-made Taurus is especially desirable for Ukraine’s struggle against this Russian air war. It has a maximum range of 500 kilometers (311 miles), which is close to twice that of the Storm Shadow and Scalp-E equivalents from the UK and France, respectively. The Taurus also can carry a bigger payload and avoid radar detection by flying just 35 meters from the ground.
The question for US President Joe Biden and his staff is more one of cost. According to the Congressional Research Service, the price to the Pentagon of a Patriot missile battery is about $1.27 billion, and of the PAC-3 interceptor missiles it uses, $4 million apiece. On Aug. 26 alone, according to Ukraine’s armed forces, Russia fired 102 of the cruise and ballistic missiles the Patriot is designed to bring down.