, Columnist
My Recession Rule Was Meant to Be Broken
The Sahm rule indicates that the US is in the midst of a downturn, but it’s not quite there yet.
Sign of the times.
Photographer: Olivier Douliery/AFP
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The US is not in a recession, despite the indicator bearing my name saying that it is. The Sahm rule, which was triggered with Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report, joins a long list of economic tools skewed by the unusual disruptions of the past four and a half years.
That said — and I say this with a mixture of humility and concern — the Sahm rule is still relevant. The risk of a recession is elevated, strengthening the case for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.