How Likely Is War Over Taiwan? Watch These Three Numbers
China will take steps to protect its financial holdings, food supplies, and oil reserves before embarking on such a risky conflict.
China only sources two-thirds of its food domestically.
Photographer: STR/AFP/Getty ImagesSenior US officials and military commanders have offered a wildly varying range of predictions for when Chinese President Xi Jinping might order an invasion of Taiwan. Such speculation captures headlines but doesn’t much help businesses looking to ascertain the real probability of war. It would be far simpler — and probably more accurate — for them to track three crucial data points.
One lesson China has learned from Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine is how poorly President Vladimir Putin prepared for the conflict. In spite of having had eight years to fortify the Russian economy after annexing Crimea in 2014, Putin left many critical vulnerabilities exposed.