Macron's Electoral Humiliation Is a Grim Omen for Europe

Predictions for the outcome of the French election, of which the second and decisive round takes place in six days, make plain that the far right Rassemblement Nationale is on course for a triumph, while national leader Emmanuel Macron faces humiliation. Though constitutionally he can retain the presidency until the end of his term in May 2027, he may decide that, with his authority in tatters, his position is untenable.

Of 577 seats in the National Assembly, the RN is expected to hold between 195 and 245, the far left alliance slightly fewer, and Macron’s centrists fewer than 100. The complexity of the French parliamentary election system, and its vulnerability to tactical voting make forecasting dangerous, but it appears almost certain that France is now plunged into a sustained political crisis, which can’t fail to extend to the European Union. Macron faces what the French call cohabitation with a prime minister of another party, a formula for weak government.