Justin Fox, Columnist

No, Illegal Migrants Aren’t Fueling a Crime Wave

Those in the US illegally are probably less likely to commit offenses than those born here, according to the available data.

There's no proven link between illegal immigration and crime.

Photographer: Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP/Getty Images

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In March 2020, President Donald Trump’s administration sealed US borders in what was billed as a measure to fight the spread of Covid-19. The estimated number of people illegally crossing the southern border plummeted, and most of those who did cross were immediately returned to Mexico. Soon after, the US erupted in a surge of violence. The homicide rate rose 29% in 2020, by far the biggest one-year gain on record.

In May 2023, the Biden administration finally lifted the Trump-era border measure, known as Title 42. Illegal border crossings had already been surging; now most of those apprehended were allowed to stay and apply for asylum rather than being sent back. Meanwhile, the US homicide rate fell by more than 10% in 2023; it’s down an additional 18% so far this year in the 262 cities tracked by AH Datalytics.