Why Ukraine Isn't Ready for Putin's Peace Talks

With three major Ukraine-focused summits this week — in Germany, Italy and Switzerland - I thought I’d ask a few people who know what they’re talking about whether it’s time to wind down support for the war and encourage Ukraine to strike the best deal with Russia it can. The conversations didn’t go quite as expected.

“Forget about Ukraine,” said Harvard University professor Serhii Plokhy, one of two prominent historians sought out for a wider perspective. “It’s not about Ukraine, it’s about you, it’s about us.”

We need always to remember this is the biggest war in Europe, and by some measures the world, since 1945. Size matters, because very large wars are breaking points whose outcomes define how nations will live for generations. This one will be no different. And judging by the maximalist demands President Vladimir Putin made on Friday for even a temporary cease-fire and the start of peace talks — including Ukraine’s withdrawal from swathes of territory and major cities Russia has so far failed to capture — the conflict will continue for some time yet.

Consider the Westphalian international system that emerged after Europe’s 30 Years’ War ended in 1648. It governed relations among states for long after the conflict was forgotten, reducing the risk of further religious free-for-alls. World War II, equally, produced a raft of institutions to govern a new world order — at least in areas conquered or liberated by the Western allies. Things turned out quite differently in areas that ended the war under Soviet control — and let’s not even entertain the what-ifs of a Nazi victory.

Yale University’s Timothy Snyder took a different approach, though to a similar end. People often think about Ukraine as a frontier or borderland (in Russian, the country’s name points you in that direction), and yet it isn’t. “Historically it’s been more of a fulcrum, of central importance to larger systems,” he said.

The 10-year security agreements the US and Japan signed with Ukraine during the G-7 meeting in Italy on Wednesday went some way to recognizing that centrality. US President Joe Biden called the deal — coupled with a preliminary agreement to use frozen Russian assets to secure a $50 billion loan for Kyiv— proof that the Kremlin can’t just wait for Western support for Ukraine to crumble. The measures are good if belated steps, but more concrete commitments are needed.

Snyder had just delivered a lecture at Estonia’s Lennart Meri security conference, in which he wanted to counter the narrow claims of Ukraine’s Russian nature by a certain amateur historian in the Kremlin. The story he laid out was infinitely more complex than Putin’s — and, frankly, more plausible.

Archaeologists have in recent years discovered the world’s oldest cities, older than Babylon, on the territory of modern Ukraine, Snyder said. The first people known to ride horses also came from what’s now Ukraine, galloping deep into Europe on the strength of this vast technological advantage, and brought with them the family of Indo-European languages that has dominated the continent ever since.