France Is Getting Weaker, and Markets Know It
The risk of a victory for Le Pen in parliamentary elections feels different this time.
Emmanuel Macron, France's president, during a news conference in Paris on Wednesday.
Photographer: Bloomberg/BloombergAs the UK struggles with the unending crisis that began with the Brexit vote eight years ago, France looks set to dive headfirst into its own.
Looming snap parliamentary elections mean France faces the uncharted combination of a pro-Europe president on the way out and a hard-right nationalist government on the way up. Sure, polls should be taken with a pinch of salt and a euro exit isn’t in the cards; Emmanuel Macron will remain head of state. But no single party looks like it will win an absolute majority, threatening chaos as French political forces continue to unravel. The center-right Republicains are at each other’s throats over whether to ally with Marine Le Pen; the left is divided; Macron’s party, once the chief beneficiary of a system designed to keep out extremes, is now set to finish third. Everyone’s eyeing presidential elections in 2027, but unlike 2017, Le Pen will be the candidate to beat.