Jonathan Levin, Columnist

Stunning Job Numbers May End Up Being Just OK

Friday’s US payrolls data beat the median forecast by a wide margin, shocking markets. Let’s not forget how imprecise the release is.

June 7, 2024 at 4:19 PM UTC

By Jonathan Levin

Jonathan Levin is a columnist focused on US markets and economics. Previously, he worked as a Bloomberg journalist in the US, Brazil and Mexico. He is a CFA charterholder.

US labor market is defying expectations.
Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images North America

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The labor market data is full of conflicting signals, but the big picture is that the US economy is in pretty good shape. That’s worth celebrating, irrespective of what the “good news is bad news for interest rates” crowd tells you.

Consider the hodgepodge of data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. On the positive side, the so-called establishment survey suggested that employers added a whopping 272,000 jobs last month, exceeding all 77 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Average hourly earnings ticked up 0.4% from the previous month, the strongest reading since January (more on that later).