John Authers, Columnist

Market Is Weighing a Very Different Trump Verdict

History may favor Biden, but bettors are putting the former president’s election chances above 50% for the first time.

May 31, 2024 at 4:35 AM UTC

John Authers is a senior editor for markets and Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief markets commentator at the Financial Times, he is author of “The Fearful Rise of Markets.”

Markets will have their own judgment.
Photographer: Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg

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Donald Trump has just been found guilty of 34 felonies. However one interprets it, this is a historic moment. But if the political betting markets are to be believed, the presidential election campaign has shifted sharply in his favor during the trial. This is how RealClear Politics’ average of the probabilities of Joe Biden or Trump winning the election have moved since the beginning of last year: