Economists Aren’t the Best at Predicting the Economy
A book published 44 years ago on the future of the US economy turns out to be both incorrect and reassuring.
Waiting in line for gasoline, June 1979, Washington, D.C.
Photographer: Pictorial Parade/Archive PhotosSometimes the best way to understand the future is to look to the past. Out of curiosity, I recently cracked open The American Economy in Transition, published in 1980, edited by Martin Feldstein and including contributions from other Nobel-winning economists, successful business leaders and notable public servants. Though most of the essays get it wrong, I found the book oddly reassuring.
The problems the book describes truly are of a different era. On one hand, I was comforted to learn that many of these fears turned out to be unfounded. On the other, I am concerned that many current economists are not worried about the correct things.