, Columnist
Iran's Attack on Israel Upsets OPEC+ Search for Goldilocks Price
There’s no oil crisis yet, but keep an eye on the options market.
Recently, I asked the head of a state-owned oil company in the Middle East what price OPEC+ is aiming for. Laughing, he replied: $99.99 a barrel, and not a single cent higher. Even following Iran’s missile attack on Israel, there’s a good chance the cartel can keep crude prices below the triple-digit barrier.
My interlocutor was intentionally flippant, but directionally, his assessment sounds about right. Yet, on any given day, achieving oil prices that are neither too hot nor too cold is extremely difficult. The geopolitics of the Middle East only confuses the calculus and makes it almost impossible to reach the fabled goldilocks level.