Markets Are Seeing a Cyclical Recovery. Forget Landing.
The economy is gaining altitude, and investor reaction should be good for value over growth, and stocks over bonds.
What landing?
Photographer: Yuki Iwamura/BloombergOK, it begins to look like we can forget about hard or soft landings, because the US economy is picking up altitude again. The numbers are coming in relentlessly strong. The latest download revealed that US job vacancies have more or less stopped declining, at a level far higher than had been seen for years before the pandemic. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ JOLTS (Jobs and Labor Turnover Survey) provided no jolt, if you wanted the economy to keep growing:
Supply managers’ surveys are also coming in strong. The purchasing manager indexes compiled by S&P Global show the global economy back above the level of 50 that marks the division between expansion and contraction. Both the US and Chinese manufacturing sectors are contributing to the strength, although Europe is still letting the side down: