The Stock Market Is Running Low on Inspiration
The Fed is stuck on hold, consumption is cooling and we can’t count on the AI bellwethers to save us anytime soon.
In need of inspiration.
Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg
All durable bull markets need bouts of positivity to keep them moving higher, and the next month is shaping up to be a good-news desert.
First, consider the outlook in Monetary Policy Land. Interest rate cuts that seemed inevitable a few months back have evidently been delayed, perhaps until mid-summer. Although I’m an avowed inflation optimist over the medium-term, the market has just digested two consecutive consumer price index reports in which monthly core inflation came in above expectations. Yes, start-of-year excess seasonality was probably a factor in the noisy numbers, but that could bleed into March as well.