Europe May Now Be Ukraine’s Only Hope. That’s Scary.

The US could soon go from pledging to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia for “as long as it takes” to for as long as it was good for Donald Trump’s presidential election campaign. It’s hard to fathom the unseriousness of this act, which would cost lives, corrode faith in American reliability from Taiwan to the Middle East, and guarantee future instability for a European market that accounts for 2.6 million US jobs. Yet it may well happen.

If it does, and the House of Representatives blocks a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine passed by the Senate this week after months of delay, it will make Europe Ukraine’s only hope for getting the support it needs for its defense. That’s a terrible position for any nation to be in, and how to step up should be the top topic for defense officials at the annual Munich Security Conference, which starts Friday.

For those arguing that the Ukrainians are going to lose anyhow, so why waste money, this is a prophecy that has already begun to self-fulfill. A new update of the Ukraine Support Tracker kept by Germany’s Kiel Institute shows the last drawdown of US cash for Ukraine in October last year, meaning a deficit of about $2 billion worth of arms a month since.

The consequences are showing on the battlefield. The rate at which Russian cruise and ballistic missiles are striking Ukrainian cities has risen to 50% from about 10% as air defense missiles supplies run low. On the front lines, now that Russia is on the offensive again it needs about three times the force of Ukraine to break through. In terms of firepower it’s getting close, as Ukrainian gunners are forced to ration ammunition for their artillery pieces. Russian casualties per meter advanced remain horrific, but they are advancing. None of this was necessary.

The last time an American administration stepped aside from a conflict in Europe was 1991, as the former Yugoslavia began to implode. “We don’t have a dog in that fight,” former Secretary of State James Baker said at the time, presuming Europe would be able to manage security in its own backyard. It was Luxembourg’s foreign minister who declared Europe’s hour had come, which is all you need to know about how that went.

As absurd as relying on Europe to deal with a security threat from Russia may sound, it isn’t impossible, but it would require a combination of urgency, pragmatism and strategic decisiveness that the bloc has never before been able to demonstrate. The Kiel Institute found that Europe was already pledging twice as much aid as the US, before Congress intervened last year. Only about half of that, though, has been sent. Kiel estimates that deliveries will have to double this year to fill the gap left by the US — unless the money comes through.

I asked the deputy governor of Ukraine’s central bank, Sergiy Nikolaychuk, to explain the financial side. The International Monetary Fund has estimated Kyiv will need $41.8 billion of budget support this year, and the government expected $37 billion of that to come from external aid. $8.5 billion of the amount was supposed to come from the US package now frozen in Washington, but the shortfall would be much bigger, says Nikolaychuk, because for Ukraine the war is existential. The government would therefore have to take money from other parts of the budget, so it could shop for the missing arms and ammunition that account for a much bigger chunk of the $60 billion US package.

The European Union finally overcame Hungarian opposition to aid for Ukraine earlier this month, adopting a €50 billion ($54 billion) package. The money is spread across four years, but frontloaded, so the amount available to disburse in 2024 is expected to be €18 billion.

“War is costly, especially when you are attacked by a global superpower,” said Nikolaychuk.

The problem here is more than financial, though, because Europe doesn’t make the same weapons as the US — think ammunition for Patriot and NASAMS missile defense systems. As it is, the Europeans have failed to meet a pledge to deliver 1 million 155-millimeter artillery shells by March. Meeting the US commitment as well would be near impossible.

So what to do? Sequestering windfall profits from some $200 billion-plus of frozen Russian assets could help. But while Nikolaychuk favors confiscating the money altogether, that would take years and should in any case go toward the massive reconstruction Ukraine will need once the war ends, he says.

On the military side, Europe seems slowly to be reawakening to that fact that it must be able to defend itself. European NATO members increased defense spending by 8.3% last year. In 2024, NATO estimates its European members will as a group meet their 2% of gross domestic product target for defense spending, for the first time since it was set. But to succeed, Europe will have to actually do what it’s been talking about for decades and consolidate its defense industry and procurement.