Gaza Ceasefire Deal Matters More Than Deterrence
With so little prospect of achieving strategic goals by force, Israel and the US should focus on saving lives and creating a window for regional de-escalation.
Smoke and flames rise in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip during Israeli bombardment on January 29, 2024.
Photographer: -/AFPThe US is trying to nail a deal between Israel and Hamas that would end the fighting in Gaza for up to two months, while a phased exchange of mainly Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners takes place. We don’t know much more than that yet, but what’s clear is that the Siren-like call of finding a once-and-for-all military solution to Israel’s security problems is leading inexorably to escalation elsewhere. Only a cease-fire in Gaza will break that cycle.
Israel says “significant gaps” remain to be closed before the US-brokered agreement can be sealed. That’s doubtless true because this was never going to be easy. The hostages are the only leverage Hamas has, so they will extract the highest price they can before giving them up. Any cease-fire would also bring greater military advantage to Hamas, which the Israel Defense Forces have put under enormous pressure. But ultimately, Gaza represents just one of Israel’s strategic challenges; in the larger picture, the world’s only Jewish state has much more to gain by scaling back the fighting.