Four Factors to Watch in Mexico’s Sweeping 2024 Elections
Never mind the certainty of pundits and polls: Even if President Andrés Manuel López Obrador engineers a victory for his ruling party successor, the country’s trajectory will defy easy prediction.
Don’t break out the mezcal just yet.
Photographer: Luis Antonio Rojas/BloombergWith Donald Trump seemingly cruising to the Republican nomination in the US, attention is shifting to the November rematch with Joe Biden. But there’s another big election in North America this year that deserves your attention. On June 2, voters in Mexico will pick a new president, all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, all 128 members of the Senate, as well as leaders in nine states, representatives to state legislatures and officials for more than 1,500 municipalities. Polls show the ruling Morena party and its presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum to be in a very strong position, so much so that some commentators have argued that the election is already decided.
Yet the outcome is not a foregone conclusion, given the tendency of many voters to make up their minds at the last minute and the wide range of variables inherent in a contest of such scale. The scope of this transition promises to influence policy and business for years to come, with significant consequences for Mexico’s neighbors. So keep your eyes on these four factors that could upend expectations and radically shift the country’s trajectory.