Justin Fox, Columnist

What to Predict When You’re Predicting a Recession

Economic forecasters weren’t wrong to rely on their models, they were just wrong about what would happen in 2023.

December 26, 2023 at 7:00 PM UTC

Justin Fox is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering business, economics and other topics involving charts. A former editorial director of the Harvard Business Review, he is author of “The Myth of the Rational Market.”

Signs of a healthy economy.
Photographer: Eilon Paz/Bloomberg

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Why did so many economists wrongly predict that there would be a recession in 2023? Tyler Cowen (an economist who had thought there was a reasonable chance of a recession) offers two main reasons (free read!):