Xi Got Lucky This Year. He Shouldn’t Get Used to It
China’s geopolitical fortunes improved in 2023 through no doing of its own. Next year will require tougher choices.
Fortune smiles.
Photographer: Philip Pacheco/BloombergFor Chinese President Xi Jinping, 2023 is on course to end very differently than he expected. When the year began, he was counting on a strong economic rebound but bracing for potential geopolitical calamities. His friend Russian President Vladimir Putin faced military defeat if Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive achieved a decisive breakthrough. Sino-American tensions were poised to plummet after the downing of a Chinese spy balloon over the US in early February.
As 2023 draws to a close, Xi’s much-anticipated economic bonanza has failed to materialize. The Chinese economy remains burdened by a collapsing real estate sector, gargantuan local government debt, falling exports, and pervasive pessimism among private entrepreneurs.