The West’s Sanctions on Russia Aren’t Scaring China One Bit
If the US is hoping to deter Xi from invading Taiwan, it had better not count on economic punishments being as effective as military might.
Photographer: Noel Celis/AFP/Getty Images
War is hell, so countries — democracies especially — are naturally inclined to seek ways to avoid its horrors. Witness the hope that powerful economic sanctions might deter Xi Jinping’s China from attacking Taiwan. The US is constructing policy on the idea that threats of economic destruction, no less than threats of military destruction, can prevent an awful conflict. It may be making a dangerous and all-too-familiar mistake.
Prior to World War I, Britain wagered that economic blitzkrieg — enabled by London’s centrality in global trade and finance — could quickly bring Germany to its knees. In the 1930s, supporters of the League of Nations believed that embargoes and other penalties could keep potential aggressors in check. We know how these cases turned out.