Fund Ukraine. The Alternative Is Loss, Not Peace.

Winter is coming to Ukraine, and just how brutal that will be — as Russia again ramps up its air war to strike at cities and energy infrastructure — is up to the US and Europe. Tragically, both seem to be losing the plot after a period of surprising resolve and unity, and a radical adjustment is now needed to how we frame the war.

Too many people appear to have lost sight that this is the largest military engagement Europe has seen since 1945, dwarfing even Israel’s heavy-handed counter-terrorist operation in Gaza. It’s a war of conquest that Russia launched in 2014, dramatically accelerated almost two years ago, and shouldn’t therefore be defined by the success or failure of any one season’s offensive by either side. That’s important to reiterate, because so much current thinking about what to do next takes the inability of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive to secure a breakthrough as its point of departure.

If Ukraine can’t attain victory, the thinking goes, what then is the purpose in prolonging the war or continuing to accept its costs? Surely it would be better to exercise a little tough love by pressing President Volodymyr Zelenskiy into a negotiated cease-fire? The questions are misguided because they arise from two false premises: first, that negotiating peace is up to Ukraine; and second, that the US and Europe rallied around Kyiv since 2022 to achieve “victory’’ over Russia.

The reality is that peace negotiations depend more on Russia — the invading power. Moreover, there is no sign whatsoever that President Vladimir Putin is ready to accept a durable cease-fire on existing battle lines. Russia’s actions, not to mention the Kremlin’s still-escalatory rhetoric and declared annexations of territory it doesn’t yet control, suggest the contrary.

Equally, the US and Europe came to Kyiv’s aid not so that it could defeat Russia, but so it could defend itself, preventing a Russian expansion that promised long-term instability for Europe. These remain vital interests, without even broaching more nebulous, values-based goals such as defending democracy or international law. They’re also more achievable than they appeared to be in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion.

In fairness to Putin, it would be illogical for him to give up on his goals now, a moment at which funding and military support for Ukraine are in jeopardy on both sides of the Atlantic. The White House this week warned it would run out of money to support Ukraine by the end of December unless Republicans in Congress lift opposition, an eventuality that a Biden official correctly said would “kneecap” Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian offensives. Meanwhile, Putin’s ally, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has made clear he intends either to leverage or frustrate both the creation of a €50 billion ($54 billion) European Union fund for Ukraine and a plan for the EU to offer Kyiv membership talks this month.

Most encouraging of all, from the Kremlin’s view, is that Donald Trump — a man with a deep personal beef with Ukraine — is leading opinion polls ahead of US presidential elections a year from now. Putin has his own political agenda, too. He faces elections next year that, no matter how unfree and unfair, remain important to underpinning his authority and legitimacy. To cut a deal now could prompt Russians to question the enormous cost they’ve been asked to pay.

What too many in the West fail to grasp, says Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, is that “Russia will not reconcile with Ukraine’’ and still believes it can win by force. They “have raised arms production, are mobilizing new forces and need a result to show for it.’’

The upshot is that Ukraine can’t stop fighting no matter what happens to its funding and arms supplies from allies. The only question is how many extra lives and additional territory will be lost should Western resolve fail, depriving Ukrainians of the means to fight back with enough force to persuade Putin that there’s nothing more he can win.