COP28 Needs Less Talk and More Action

In 2015, the world’s governments declared a collective ambition: to limit the rise in global temperatures to just 1.5 degrees Celsius. Since then, two things have become clear. First, the costs of exceeding that threshold are greater than believed eight years ago. Second, the goal looks increasingly difficult to reach. Even if governments enact all the climate policies they’ve so far announced — an optimistic assumption — warming this century is on track to exceed 2C and might run as high as 2.9C.

As 70,000 politicians, officials and interested parties gather in Dubai for COP28 — two weeks of talks to review what’s been done and still needs to be done — this failure to align policies with promises should remain front of mind. BloombergNEF is watching 10 areas where progress in Dubai can be measured against identifiable targets. As the meeting began, the expected score across all these initiatives was 3.9 out of 10. Likely progress on the overarching objective — to get global carbon emissions in sync with the 1.5C ambition by 2030 — was a pitiful 1 out of 10.