Biden and Xi Have a Lot to Talk About

The last time Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met in person to stabilize US-China relations, a year ago in Bali, a wayward Chinese spy balloon blew things off course within months. The relationship will face far stiffer challenges in the year ahead. At their summit in California Wednesday, the two leaders’ highest priority should be to reach a modus vivendi that can withstand them.

Since US fighter jets shot down the balloon in February, ties between the world’s two leading powers have deteriorated dangerously. The US has further tightened restrictions on high-tech exports to China and placed unprecedented limits on outbound investment. Chinese planes and ships are harassing US forces in international waters and airspace, and threatening those of a US ally in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. An accidental clash could quickly escalate. US and Chinese officials have only recently started speaking again; military commanders still haven’t. Meanwhile, the two find themselves on opposite sides in hot wars raging in Europe and the Middle East.

January elections could put Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te — seen by Beijing as a dangerous separatist — into power. In the US, Republican presidential candidates are rushing to out-hawk each other with lavish promises to arm the island. The Biden administration may extend investment curbs to new sectors such as biotech. If it cracks down on Iranian oil smuggling, Chinese companies and banks could face new sanctions. US efforts to de-risk supply chains could drive more firms out of China. Measures to deepen ties with and between Asian allies will intensify Beijing’s fears of encirclement.

High-level summits are crucial to setting the tone of superpower relationships, as the US-Soviet cold war demonstrated. Right now, deep suspicions are driving both sides to attribute the worst motives to the other. According to reports, the two sides may announce an agreement for China to crack down on the fentanyl trade. More important than any specific deliverables, however, will be whether Biden and Xi can use this week’s meeting to reestablish a modicum of trust.

Neither should expect the other to change course fundamentally or be deflected from policies designed to safeguard national security. But they can assure each other that they seek to avoid conflict. On Taiwan, Biden should make clear that longstanding US policy — to support any peaceful resolution endorsed by the Taiwanese people — has not changed. Xi should demonstrate that China remains committed to peaceful reunification by scaling back the air and sea incursions that have become routine in recent months.

There’s scope as well for cooperation behind the scenes. Though some in Beijing may enjoy seeing the US distracted in Ukraine and Gaza, such schadenfreude is short-sighted. China is ill-served by unstinting support for Russia’s Vladimir Putin, which has severely damaged its relations with Europe, and would be hit much harder than the US by disruptions in oil supplies if the conflict in the Middle East expands. Xi would be wise to coordinate with Biden in restraining Iran and urging Putin to end his war in Ukraine.

More visibly, both leaders should recognize that certain modes of communication are too important to be used as bargaining chips. They should resume military-to-military talks and promise to keep those channels open regardless of other disputes. The same goes for newly commenced nuclear talks. Similarly, the two sides should continue working-level economic discussions to manage expectations and foreshadow actions that might otherwise be misconstrued.

If the summit leads to closer cooperation on other matters of vital, mutual interest — from climate change to emerging-market debt — so much the better. For now, a good start would be to resolve that their disagreements can be managed and that conflict will at all costs be avoided.

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