Mohamed A. El-Erian , Columnist

Yield Uncertainty Will Persist Even If the Fed Is Done Raising Rates

A hard-to-read economy and expanding government bond issuance will keep investors on their toes.

November 9, 2023 at 11:00 AM UTC

Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief executive officer of Pimco, he is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. He is author of “The Only Game in Town.”

Don’t expect clarity.
Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images North America

Provide news feedback or report an error

Site feedback:

Take our Survey

This article is for subscribers only.

A simple logic has played out in markets this month. Price movements point to an anticipation that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and will now start cutting in early 2024, thereby pushing down market-determined yields as it continues to ease policy throughout the year; and that all this will bode well for the economy and virtually all financial assets.

Not so fast, unfortunately, for all of us who hope for greater certainty and less yield volatility.