Don’t Give Up On Venezuelan Democracy

An agreement signed last month between Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro and members of the opposition raised hopes of an openly contested presidential election next year. In response, President Joe Biden’s administration has suspended some sanctions against Venezuela’s energy sector and lifted a ban on the trading of its sovereign bonds.

A less hostile relationship with Venezuela is in America’s interests. But any further concessions to the regime should be conditioned on a genuine commitment to democratic change. The signs so far are less than encouraging.

Under the deal, Maduro agreed not to prevent the opposition from holding primary elections on Oct. 22. The government also pledged to simplify the voter-registration process, admit election observers and give opposition candidates greater access to state media coverage. International mediators hoped the accord could pave the way for the country’s first free election since 2015, when anti-Maduro forces briefly won a majority in parliament, only for Maduro to regain control over all branches of government through a series of sham elections.

There’s little reason to think Maduro has suddenly embraced democracy. He’s refused to say whether Maria Corina Machado, a free-market former lawmaker and longtime critic of the regime, will be allowed to run in next year’s general election, despite her overwhelming victory in the primary. The government has previously barred Machado from holding office for 15 years, on spurious grounds. Last week, the country’s electoral court suggested it might nullify the primary results, disqualifying Machado. If the regime follows through, an opposition boycott of next year’s vote is likely, making it impossible for countries like the US to recognize the outcome.

Given the possibility of another fraudulent vote, US lawmakers from both parties have criticized Biden’s decision to ease sanctions as recklessly premature. Doing business with a dictator like Maduro certainly carries risks — but the US strategy of applying “maximum pressure” in hopes of toppling the regime has proved futile. Former President Donald Trump’s ban on Venezuelan oil imports contributed to the collapse of the economy and the exodus of 7 million people, including at least 500,000 who’ve since sought asylum in the US. In the meantime, Maduro tightened his grip on power by forging an alliance with Vladimir Putin’s Russia and increasing repression of his domestic opponents.

Yet both sides have incentives to talk. Sanctions over the war in Ukraine have put Venezuelan assets held in Russian banks at risk. Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted oil supplies and threatened to push the global economy into recession. Biden’s suspension of sanctions could allow Venezuela to increase oil production by an estimated 20% over the next six months, with much of it flowing to the US. Restarting dialogue with Maduro has also aided US efforts to manage the migration crisis: Venezuela has begun accepting migrants deported from the US for crossing illegally, the first time it has done so since the start of the pandemic.

Biden should continue to pursue diplomacy, without abandoning America’s commitment to Venezuelan democracy — which is critical to deterring outward migration and encouraging those who’ve left to return home. Along with European partners, the US should insist that the Venezuelan government commit to a firm date for next year’s ballot, ratify Machado’s primary victory and and allow the regime’s opponents to campaign freely. Additional relief of sanctions against the government or members of the regime should wait until Maduro agrees not just to hold free elections but also to abide by the results.

The Maduro government’s repressive rule has left a once-thriving nation in ruins and created a humanitarian crisis that has spread far beyond the country’s borders. Yet coercion alone hasn’t solved the problem. A diplomatic strategy that upholds democratic principles while setting realistic goals is the best way forward for the US, the region and the Venezuelan people.

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