Allison Schrager, Columnist

Why No Recession Yet? Thank the US Consumer

The question isn’t whether Americans will eventually cut back on their spending, but whether they’ll cause a recession when they do.

October 27, 2023 at 10:30 AM UTC

By Allison Schrager

Allison Schrager is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering economics. A senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, she is author of “An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk.”

Saving the US economy one purchase at a time.
Photographer: FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP

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The US economy is being kept afloat with lawnmowers, cars and vacations. US consumers have kept buying these things despite high inflation and the contractionary policy of the Federal Reserve, and they deserve thanks not only for the recession that still has not come, but for the fast pace of recent economic growth.

And yet, the economy doesn’t feel sustainable. Consumers have to cut back eventually, right? And when they do, does that mean a recession?