Poland’s Democracy Is Too Important to Fail

Elections are too often described as pivotal, but Poland’s Oct. 15 vote really is — with major implications for the country’s 38 million people, its relationship with Europe and the course of the war in Ukraine. Regardless of the outcome, the West has an interest in seeing that Poland stays on a democratic path and remains a linchpin of Ukraine’s defense and European security.

Over the past three decades, Poland’s economy has been among the region’s great success stories. Having only joined the European Union in 2004, Poland is now its sixth largest economy, with a GDP per capita that is higher than longstanding members Portugal and Greece.

Yet beneath that prosperity are growing political and social tensions, which threaten the hold of the ruling Law & Justice Party (PiS). The runup to Sunday’s elections has witnessed the largest demonstrations since the fall of communism and the resignation of two top military officials. A record number of overseas Poles have registered to vote, despite a law designed to void as many of those ballots as possible.

The backlash stems from a series of government policies that have undermined judicial independence and media freedom, among other things. Minorities, LGBTQ people, migrants, women, and critics of the government have at times been the target of incendiary rhetoric or discrimination. Critics say that PiS’s preoccupation with cultural issues has also distracted it from challenges that could derail Poland’s run of economic growth, including rising costs of living, an aging population, and deep regional disparities in income and opportunity.

Meanwhile, Poland’s domestic divisions have raised concerns about its reliability as a partner to Ukraine. Following Russia’s invasion, Warsaw sent stockpiles of weapons, set up critical logistics and training hubs with NATO countries, and took in the largest Ukrainian refugee population. But ties between the two countries have since frayed, after the Polish government imposed a ban on Ukrainian grain imports and threatened to withhold further military support. While that may reflect political pressure, it betrays a lack of serious thinking about Poland’s long-term interests.

Opposition leader Donald Tusk, a former prime minister, has pledged to bring Poland’s laws in line with EU norms and address wealth disparities. If the election is tight, smaller parties, including one whose views make PiS look moderate, may hold the balance of power.

Whatever the electoral outcome, Poland’s next government needs to better balance the country’s national interests with its commitments to Ukraine and its responsibilities as an EU member. That’s essential for addressing challenges such as EU enlargement and Poland’s energy transition, in addition to promoting regional stability and cooperation.

For Europe, balancing carrots and sticks will be tricky, especially if Poland goes in an even more populist direction. Yet Poland’s post-Communist identity is deeply rooted in its EU membership — it’s the largest beneficiary of EU transfers, after all — and the trans-Atlantic alliance. That gives Poland’s friends no small influence. They should use it to hold Polish leaders accountable for their actions and to offer incentives for reforms. The goal is a Poland that’s thriving, stable and democratic. The rest is for voters to decide.

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