Hurting From Rate Hikes? The Fed Looks as If It’s Finally Done

Market pricing, verbal cues from Federal Reserve members and the likely evolution of the economic data over the next couple of months all point in the same direction — the central bank is likely done raising interest rates.

Forecasting the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle requires jumping the gun a bit. To the extent that officials ever declare rate increases are behind us, the message will only come once we have gotten through several no-change meetings. By then, we will perhaps be in an environment where economic weakness seems more likely than strong growth. But there are reasons to predict the policy turn with a fair degree of confidence now.