Netanyahu Should Take His Own Advice to Avoid Wider War
The prime minister’s response agenda was good, and he needs a new cabinet to execute it.
Amid a shock this past weekend that was as monumental for Israel as was Sept. 11, 2001, for the US a generation ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set out a good framework to respond. Whether he can stick to that strategy and execute it, rather than repeat the mistakes the US made in the years after al-Qaeda’s equally unexpected attack on New York, will decide his place in Israel’s history.
Netanyahu said his country was now at “war’’ with Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by Israel and the US. Though understandable, or even inevitable, given the moment, this wasn’t a good sign. Wars demand clear battlefield victories that don’t necessarily bring strategic ones, and Israel’s strategic priority right now should be containment. This conflict could grow a lot worse if allowed.
The more substantive part of Netanyahu’s statement on Saturday was hard to fault. He divided his prescription for the days and weeks ahead into three parts: First, clear Hamas fighters from Israeli territory and restore security to the border; second, exact a price from Hamas, including in Gaza, while securing other borders to ensure nobody else attacks; and finally, unite and remain level-headed. It's the second and third parts that will be hard to stick to, so let’s take them one at a time.
Netanyahu’s second point is critical. It balances the need for retribution, and to weaken Hamas’s capacity for any repeat, with the need to make sure that this brutal raid on Israeli territory doesn’t become a real war, fought by Israel on one side against a range of state and non-state actors on the other. This is likely to be Hamas’s intent.
Despite all the 1973 parallels, this isn’t the Yom Kippur war — yet. Israel has been attacked by just one of its regional adversaries, and one of the weakest at that. Some of the country’s battlefield opponents from the 1970s have even reconciled with it since. Still, all this can change quickly if the conflict escalates with the fury of the moment.
As for the US with Afghanistan after Sept. 11, Netanyahu has little choice but to send his armed forces into Gaza, not least to retrieve hostages. But the nature and extent of that assault isn’t predetermined. Gaza is a densely populated urban territory of about 2 million people, and achieving full control will likely require the most vicious, difficult form of warfare. The Israel Defense Forces are equipped to do that, but it isn’t clear what an achievable endgame would be, and that needs to be determined in advance. Failure to do so cost the US and ordinary Afghans dearly. Iraq was a still-worse example.