Nagorno-Karabakh’s Tragedy Can’t Be Ignored

Over the past week, the long-simmering conflict in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh has devolved into tragedy. More than 70,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the region, raising fears that Azerbaijan’s government is carrying out a campaign of full-scale ethnic cleansing. Western leaders have a moral and strategic interest to respond to the disaster and prevent it from spreading.

While seemingly obscure, the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh shouldn’t be ignored. It’s already destabilizing a region that’s a vital and growing source of global energy supplies. Worsening tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia could intensify border skirmishes and endanger the sovereignty of Armenia, a Western-oriented democracy on the doorstep of Europe and Russia. Although the West can’t intervene in every distant conflict, failing to push back against ethnic cleansing would send a message to countries like Russia and China that military aggression and violations of international norms will go unpunished.

Situated within the borders of Azerbaijan but mostly populated and self-governed by ethnic Armenians, Nagorno-Karabakh has been at the center of intermittent fighting since before the collapse of the Soviet Union, including two wars. Most recently the regime of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has gained the upper hand, strengthened by demand for the country’s fossil fuels. With the backing of Turkey, Azerbaijan launched a six-week offensive in 2020, recapturing territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and a part of the enclave itself.

Since last December, “protesters” have blocked the sole artery connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, known as the Lachin corridor. Despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers, the Armenian population was forced to rely on convoys from humanitarian agencies to bring food, fuel and medicine through.

On Sept. 19, Azerbaijan’s army launched a successful military operation to reclaim the territory once and for all; its self-governing authority and institutions have been disbanded. Human-rights group warned that Azerbaijan might use the opportunity to force all Armenians out of Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory they count as a historical homeland. By most indications, that’s already taking place: At least half of the territory’s population of more than 120,000 has fled for Armenia and dozens more are believed to have died trying to get out.

In addition to this humanitarian disaster, the widening crisis complicates Europe’s reliance on natural gas from Azerbaijan, which has become a key alternative source of energy since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It could also increase tensions between the West and Turkey, a NATO ally that has supported Aliyev’s recent offensive and his broader territorial ambitions.

The US and Europe can’t afford to stand by. As Azerbaijan assumes full control over the enclave, Western leaders should insist that the Baku government accept an international peacekeeping force to protect any remaining civilians, respect the rights of any prisoners (including Nagorno-Karabakh’s former state minister Ruben Vardanyan), and allow the safe transit of those seeking to leave. The rich Armenian cultural heritage in the region should be protected against further destruction. Since the most likely outcome is that all or nearly all Armenians will exit, increased humanitarian assistance will be necessary to help refugees find new lives in Armenia proper. The West should press Turkey to make clear to Aliyev that international law must be followed and that any unilateral attempts to redraw borders with Armenia will result in sanctions and other repercussions.

There’s no guarantee that any outside intervention will be successful. But the world has learned that inattention can prove even costlier.

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