Even in the Age of Tesla, European Gasoline Demand Is Booming
Consumer behavior shows a collision of old and new trends that may keep fuel consumption surging for a while.
An electric-vehicle charging point near Braintree, in eastern England, on Aug. 8, 2023.
Photographer: JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images
Business is brisk at one of London’s top electric-vehicle charging hubs, owned by BP Plc, in the western suburb of Hammersmith. Spend time here watching how Tesla Inc.’s and competitors’ EVs come and go and you might leave convinced that gasoline’s days are numbered in Europe.
Turn to the right, however, and that impression would vanish like disappearing ink: A conventional fuel station is doing even brisker business selling fossil fuels for conventional cars.
Perhaps gasoline doesn’t have a future — but its present is rather healthy. Blame the lopsided world of cars and oil in Europe, where old and new trends collide in tense and counterintuitive ways.
Consider fuel consumption. In the UK, gasoline demand was the strongest for the January-to-June period this year since 2015, according to Bloomberg calculations based on government data. In France, demand hit a 20-year high during the summer. In Spain, it’s risen to the highest in more than a decade. And in eastern European nations like Poland, it’s the strongest ever.
How is this trend possible in Europe when EV sales are also surging? And does it reflect a swan song or a shift toward stronger-for-longer fuel consumption?
To answer these questions, one must investigate the bowels of the region’s car and oil markets, which have changed beyond recognition since 2015, and how consumers drive those automobiles.
For a time, European gasoline demand was dropping year after year, with oil executives assuming that consumption would fall somewhere between 1% and 2% per annum, driven by two factors: more efficient engines and the rise of diesel-powered vehicles, particularly in Germany and France. That trend changed around 10 years ago. First, gasoline use stabilized, and then it started to climb. Based on preliminary data, it looks like European Union gasoline consumption hovered this summer at a 10-year high.