, Columnist
Goodbye to the Bull Market for US Treasury Bonds
The paradigm has shifted. Higher yields are back.
Not for bonds.
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Who knew that the subject of US Treasury bond yields could inspire such passion? When, in late June, I argued that they were likely to move considerably higher than the then-prevailing 3.75%, I attracted some vehement pushback. In a publication titled “Don’t Be a Dud,” analysts at Morgan Stanley insisted that the 10-year bond would experience a summer price rally, and that the yield would ultimately settle into a longer-term range of 2% to 3%.
I’m sticking with my prediction. What’s more, I strongly suspect that the bond bull market that began in the early 1980s is over.