The White House Knows Where Inflation’s Headed. You Can Too.
Notable declines in the core consumer price index are coming because of the lag with which new rental leases are included in the data.
President Joe Biden with National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard (R) and Council of Economic Advisers Chair Cecilia Rouse.
Photographer: Alex Wong/Getty Images North AmericaThe White House embraced “Bidenomics” to describe its economic agenda last month, reclaiming a term that President Joe Biden’s detractors have frequently used as a pejorative. Various administration officials have since talked up its ambitions. I have no doubt that they're sincere about the importance of the middle-class, infrastructure investments and union jobs with an eye to the presidential election, but this is really a gamble on inflation — the tax that has hit middle-class pocketbooks hard these past two years.
President Biden’s team is betting that moderating price pressures, and the significant future declines in inflation already baked in, will boost consumer confidence and his standing with voters. The shifts we've already seen in the past few months suggest it’s a smart move.
One of the architects of this strategy is likely Lael Brainard, a long-time member of the Federal Reserve who became the head of the White House National Economic Council in February. Her final Fed speech in January outlined why inflation was likely to fall in the future. Speaking about shelter inflation, which comprises over 40% of the core reading in the Consumer Price Index, she said, “the decline in rent on new leases will show through to average rent over time, and declines in housing services inflation are expected by the third quarter of this year.”