Blink and You’ll Miss These Interest-Rate Pauses

It’s time to send out a search party for the interest-rate pause. A meaningful breather, that is, not a light tap of the brakes that barely registers. The moment when central banks could cool their jets has long been anticipated. Pity that moment is being disowned just when we should be enjoying it.

Around the start of the year, when monetary chiefs in important economies began laying the ground for a break after a series of aggressive hikes, they spoke about lags. That is a reference to the need to allow increases to flow through to the behavior of companies and consumers. Was policy tight enough to bring inflation down toward target or did officials risk overdoing it and inducing a hard landing? The idea was to be looking forward after months of playing catch-up.