Labor Market Is Cooling Plenty Under the Surface
Structural worker shortages are boosting headline payrolls data, belying the slowdown that’s happening elsewhere in the economy.
Private education and health-care services and leisure and hospitality are leading the gains.
Photographer: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
US employers added 236,000 jobs to payrolls in March, providing more kindling for the monetary policy arsonists who would burn down the economy to tame inflation. As the argument goes, employment cost pressures ultimately drive prices, and the labor market is still too hot to get sticker shock under control. But look closer and it’s clear that labor market prospects are already dimming, and policymakers risk unnecessary economic harm if they ignore the signs.
Of course, the top-line numbers — which receive all the attention — are heavily influenced to the upside by the extreme and well-known structural worker shortages in a couple of categories. Namely: