John Authers, Columnist

Has a Recession Been Postponed? Jobs Data May Tell

With the US labor market still robust, indicators attempting to work out the timing of a recession abound. Meanwhile, China’s post Covid-Zero stock rally is running out of steam.

March 9, 2023 at 5:25 AM UTC

By John Authers

John Authers is a senior editor for markets and Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief markets commentator at the Financial Times, he is author of “The Fearful Rise of Markets.”

Construction workers demand.
Photographer: Micah Green/Bloomberg

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There are plenty of decent recession indicators out there to alert you to a slowdown before it happens. The problem is the lead time. Even after the alarms flash, it can take a while for growth to subside. Let’s start with the yield curve, the scariest indicator at the moment.