Policymakers, Check Your Presumptuousness
Don’t dismiss people’s observations. Averages don’t necessarily predict individual experience.
Individual experience matters.
Photographer: Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty ImagesAverages do not predict individual experiences, and individual experiences do not negate the average. They can contrast without presenting a conflict. All too often, policymakers lose sight of this simple truth — with repercussions for their credibility, and for programs that could otherwise make millions of Americans better off.
Consider the case of the expanded Child Tax Credit. In 2021, it delivered as much as $3600 to every child in the US, distributed monthly, whether the parents were working or not. Real-time surveys showed what research later confirmed: If the government gives money to low-income families with young children, they spend it primarily on food, shelter and paying down debt. While the policy was in effect, it lifted an estimated 2.9 million children out of poverty.