Modi Can Shrug Off Gandhi’s Populist Challenge, For Now
Expect a fairly cautious government budget, but don’t rule out the risk of a slippage during the year if political pressures mount just as growth slides.
Standing on ceremony.
Photographer: Sajjad Hussain/AFP/Getty Images
Given that it’s his last, big spending opportunity before next year’s general elections, it won’t be unreasonable to expect Prime Minister Narendra Modi to sprinkle the Feb. 1 government budget with a dose of populism. This is especially so, as Rahul Gandhi, his main political opponent, is on a grueling months-long trek, walking from the edge of the Indian Ocean in the south to Kashmir in the northern Himalayan region, trying to whip up passion around everyday issues like unemployment and inflation.
Yet, the budget might at best pander to the middle class by some cosmetic tinkering with income-tax slabs. I’ll be surprised if the administration suddenly decides to push mass consumption by diluting its single-minded devotion to investment. An expansion of the welfare state — better old-age security and higher maternity benefits, for instance — is equally unlikely, even though it will help Modi counter Gandhi’s accusation that his government is working only for a few rich tycoons, such as Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani, two of the the world’s wealthiest people.