China Feels the Sting of a Population in Decline

During China’s boom years, one of the things that set it apart in a fast-growing region was the seemingly limitless supply of human capital. A massive citizenry, mobilized by supply chains and manufacturing hubs, propelled the country to economic power and turbo-charged living standards. Today, when it comes to population, China is less an exception than a reflection of broader trends.

While China may feel the sting of shifting demographics for years to come, the challenges arrived in other star economies some years ago. Japan has been the poster child for dwindling headcounts for ages, South Korean deaths began exceeding births in 2020 and Singapore’s population declined for a couple of years before notching a gain in the year to mid-2022. These are prosperous societies that haven’t fallen apart as their demographic dividend faded. Even the Philippines, long a big exporter of people, is starting to face some of the same headwinds.