Independent Voters Are More Important Than Ever

In an age when the two parties disagree sharply on almost every major issue, it can be tempting to assume that almost every voter is a committed supporter of either the Democrats or Republicans, and that each election is decided merely by whether Team Red or Team Blue drives more loyalists to the polls. But evidence is piling up that political independents played a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2022 elections — and it’s very possible that they could be an equally critical factor in 2024.

About 40% of adult Americans consider themselves independents rather than members of either major party. Because independents are less likely than partisans to vote, they always represent a smaller share of the electorate than of the total population. Even so, exit polls reported that independents represented 31% of all voters in 2022, only slightly less than the number of self-identified Republicans (36%) or Democrats (33%).