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Geopolitics is throwing up more issues than usual for investors — to name only the most obvious, there’s the war in Ukraine, the new very poorly received administration in China, new premiers taking office in strange circumstances in the UK and Italy, and midterm elections coming up in the US that seem likely to deepen political polarization. All of these things matter a lot. Points of Return will come back to them. But to avoid missing the elephant in the room, this newsletter is going to be about the central issues of inflation, how central banks react to it, and how they will affect markets. To use the word of the moment, all of these issues could be more pivotal than any of the current geopolitical concerns.
