Jonathan Levin, Columnist

Think Homeowners Will Stay Put? Austin Suggests Otherwise

The “lock-in effect” is supposed to forestall a drop in US housing prices. The Texas capital shows it's not so ironclad.

Homeowners and investors are trying to time the top of the market in Austin, Texas.

Photographer: Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg

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Mortgage rates have nearly tripled and housing affordability has plummeted, but US home prices aren’t really supposed to fall much — at least according to the prevailing narrative. As few buyers as there are, there are too few sellers to drag prices much lower, the optimists say.

Austin, Texas, seems to disagree.