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Opinion
David Fickling

Lula’s Second Go Will Be Made Harder by Commodities Markets

Brazil’s ex-president won't get the same tailwind from global commodities markets if he returns to power.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's former president, speaks after vote were counted.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's former president, speaks after vote were counted.

Photographer: Tuane Fernandes/Bloomberg

Hello and welcome to Monday’s edition of Elements, our daily energy and commodities newsletter. OPEC+ announced over the weekend that it plans its first in-person meeting in more than two years this week, where they’ll discuss big production cuts. Oil’s sharply higher. In today’s take, Bloomberg Opinion’s David Fickling looks at yesterday’s Brazilian election and the interplay with global commodities markets. If  you haven’t yet signed up to get Elements direct into your inbox, you can do that  here.

For many years, the victory of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s 2002 presidential election looked like a unique turning point in development history. A country that had seen three IMF bailouts in four years — the last on the very eve of the ballot — managed to surf the commodity boom of the 2000s to break its perennial cycle of lackluster growth. By the time Lula left office in 2010, Brazil was an IMF creditor, not a debtor.