Aaron Brown, Columnist

The Stock Market's Rebound Has History on Its Side

Since 1926, equities have recovered more than half of a 10% or larger decline 79 times and only once, in March 1930, did they reach a new low before setting a new all-time peak.

August 16, 2022 at 10:00 AM UTC

By Aaron Brown

Aaron Brown is a former head of financial market research at AQR Capital Management. He is also an active crypto investor, and has venture capital investments and advisory ties with crypto firms. He is the author of the soon-to-be-released "Wrong Number."

Stocks have bounced higher, but can it last?
Photographer: Nocella/Three Lions/Getty Images

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The benchmark S&P 500 Index’s recent rebound has brought it more than halfway back from its 2022 low point in mid-June, which is an encouraging sign for many investors. It’s certainly one of the most statistically reliable signals in the stock market. But does that mean it’s safe to get back into stocks?

Since 1926, stocks have recovered more than half of a 10% or larger decline 79 times and only once, in March 1930, did the market reach a new low before setting a new all-time peak. Moreover, the average return in the month after the 50% point is reached is 2.7%, better than the 0.9% average for all months. The year after averages 16.0% versus 12.7% for all years. Volatility is lower than average after the 50% point as well.