Putin’s War Should Change the Way the World Farms

Food prices were already lofty before grain-producing Russia invaded wheat-exporting Ukraine, hampering Black Sea trade and triggering unprecedented financial sanctions. The rising cost of fuel and staple goods, at a time when government budgets are already under strain, is now fraying tempers and straining alliances worldwide.

Making matters worse, Russia is also a giant in the concentrated global fertilizer market. Although sanctions have carve-outs for food and crop nutrients, in practice, export logistics have been disrupted, traders and banks fear running afoul of the rules, and high gas prices have inflated production expenses. The ultimate cost to farmers has been steep: Between April 2020 and March this year, fertilizer prices more than tripled — the sharpest 23-month increase since 2008, according to the World Bank.