Stephen Mihm, Columnist

Identifying Recessions Is More Art Than Science

Wouldn’t it be reassuring if science could pinpoint the moment when the economy turns sour? Actually, no.

July 15, 2022 at 11:00 AM UTC

Stephen Mihm, a professor of history at the University of Georgia, is coauthor of “Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance.”

Depressing? Maybe. Recession? Not yet.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Provide news feedback or report an error

Site feedback:

Take our Survey

This article is for subscribers only.

Recession fears spike as inflation soars. Fair enough. But it’s not actually clear what people are afraid of.

Recessions come in a dizzying assortment of shapes, sizes and guises. Some are dubbed panics, others depressions. History shows that no two recessions have the same causes or effects.