, Columnist
Is a Recession Coming? Beware of This Indicator
Unemployment claims might not be a reliable measure of actual layoffs.
The system needs work.
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Will inflation — or efforts to tame it — lead to a recession in the US? When such fears arise, people start paying a lot of attention to weekly unemployment-insurance claims, as an early indicator of layoffs that could augur a broader slump.
They should be careful. Unemployment claims are a flawed gauge that may be particularly skewed by the pandemic.