, Columnist
The Slower the Fed, the Harder the Landing
If a recession doesn’t happen in the next couple years, it will only be worse.
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In a recent column, I made the case that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to get inflation under control will inevitably result in a hard landing for the economy. But that leaves an important question unanswered: When will the recession happen?
My best guess: Probably not this year, more likely in 2023 or 2024. And the later the downturn comes, the worse it will be.