Don’t Let Taiwan Become the Next Ukraine

Judging by official Chinese media, President Xi Jinping appears to have focused more on the question of Taiwan than the Russian invasion of Ukraine when he spoke with his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden last week. If Xi fears U.S. support for what he calls “Taiwan independence” forces, many U.S. analysts worry about the opposite — that China might be inspired by the Russian assault to seek its own takeover of Taiwan. At the very least, the U.S. should be drawing some important lessons from the crisis in Europe about how to prepare for that possibility.

In theory, Vladimir Putin’s struggles in Ukraine should give Chinese leaders pause. The Russian military has suffered a series of tactical failures on terrain friendlier than what Chinese commanders leading an amphibious assault on Taiwan would face. Western nations have imposed severe economic costs on Russia with stunning speed. Even the limited weaponry that NATO countries have provided Ukraine has proved lethal. In Taiwan, China may have to face a combat-tested and technologically advanced U.S. military directly.