, Columnist
Oil’s Not at $200. But It’s Pricey Enough for Asia
Stagflation remains a threat because many countries budgeted crude costs very much lower. And then there’s China.
Putting it crudely.
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The selloff in the global oil market might bring a sense of relief to Asia’s policy makers: So this isn’t 1973, after all.
Back then, prices almost quadrupled in three months and then just kept rising. This time around, Brent crude zoomed to about $128 a barrel, but fell equally dramatically. Speculative bets on a renewed surge are unwinding — as prices bob around the $100-a-barrel range. Yet, policy makers and investors shouldn’t be too complacent. Even if the benchmark this year doesn't hit the $200 mark that commodities trader Pierre Andurand sees as possible, oil can be a potent instrument of stagflation.