Ukraine Can’t Escape Putin’s Mind
The Russian president’s strong feelings about his neighbor mean that even if he forgoes a full-blown invasion, he won’t give up undermining the country.
The Tsar in his labyrinth.
Photographer: Anadolu Agency/Anadolu via Getty Images
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The pain in Ukraine comes mainly from the fevered brain of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Exhibit A would be the rambling speech he gave justifying his decision to recognize and support the separatist republics of Eastern Ukraine. Drenched in grievance and resentment at the West and righteous revanchism over Russia’s lost glory, this “extraordinary rant” left Leonid Bershidsky with a “sinking feeling” that Putin’s “hatred” for Ukraine means that even if he forgoes a full-blown invasion, he won’t give up undermining the neighboring country.
Meanwhile, Putin’s dispatch of troops to provide “peacekeeping” protection to the separatists will leave Ukraine in a state of suspended conflict, in which some mishap or miscalculation with Russian forces across the line could trigger a major mass-casualty assault and the end of Ukrainian sovereignty. The U.S. and its allies will have to calibrate their response to maximize its deterrence value. The good news, according to Hal Brands, is that over the course of this crisis, the U.S. has displayed admirable chops at information warfare, releasing an unprecedented amount of intelligence to solidify support, expose Russian disinformation and put Putin on the back foot.